The biggest lie in the photovoltaic industry

2020-10-09 13:48:21

Why is the valuation of photovoltaic companies always low? Because this kind of industry with the entire industry chain in China, independent property rights, and capable of making money around the world has been shrouded in a shadow, that is, as long as photovoltaic technology changes, the industry leader will be Will fall, the former richest man will become the first loser.

The fact seems to be true. The former Wuxi Suntech has fallen, Hanergy has fallen, and polycrystalline has completely lost to single crystal. The fall of the three leading players seems to prove that this industry cannot be a leader. With every technological change, production capacity The bigger the enterprise, the faster it will fall.

However, some stories need to be carefully distinguished. Are these companies really down on technological iteration?

Wuxi Suntech, China's first leading photovoltaic company in the world, fell due to the sharp decline in the European and American markets during the financial crisis and misjudgment of the price of silicon materials. It signed a ten-year long order. At the same time, Shi Zhengrong believed that thin-film batteries were the future direction, and Suntech suffered heavy losses as a result.

Hanergy has always been focusing on thin-film batteries, which can be said to be a big bet on thin-film batteries. However, the fact is that thin-film batteries have not yet been able to achieve affordable Internet access and can only be in specific markets.

Companies with polysilicon as their main direction of attack have once relied on cost performance for a while, but they eventually fell behind in the competition with single crystal.

So are these photovoltaic companies eliminated because of technological iteration? The fact is that these types of photovoltaic technologies are all developed at the same time. No matter monocrystalline silicon, polycrystalline silicon, thin film, even gallium arsenide and other photovoltaic circuits, they all run through the entire photovoltaic development history at the same time. Technology has produced iterative development of another technology, but in the end the market chooses a technology route that can achieve parity online.

The development of Longi, GCL, and Hanergy is essentially the competition of several technical lines. When various technical lines emerge, it is impossible to judge which direction is the real direction. Only through trial and error of countless companies and funds can we In the end, I found the way to a cheap Internet connection. Fortunately, Longi chose the right one.

Therefore, the fall of the leader in the early stage is not a technical iteration similar to 2g, 3g, 4g, but the same as the final battle between AC and DC when the transmission technology was selected. It is a contest of technical routes.

Only when the battle for photovoltaic circuits comes to an end can we truly enter the era of technological iteration.

Iteration, explained from Baidu Baike, is the activity of repeating the feedback process, and its purpose is usually to approach the desired goal or result. Each repetition of the process is called an "iteration", and the result of each iteration will be used as the initial value of the next iteration. Technical iteration, the most important thing is to upgrade the previous technical foundation and accumulation, so today, who is most capable of carrying out this technical iteration?

Photovoltaic is an industrial product in the final analysis. When the technical route is determined, the competition is the ability of management, marketing, technology investment and mass production. If the management is equally good, there has not been a case of a small company quickly subverting a leading company in an industry where the technology line is basically determined.

Photovoltaic is too much underestimated compared to several high-value industries, and most companies are between 20-30 times. Don't you see the huge risks of consumer electronics in the process of reshaping the world industrial chain? Not to mention that 5g bears the brunt of the Sino-US confrontation, and the chip is more like calculating performance according to the picture. Don’t worry about whether Longi is good or Tongweiqiang, JA is good or TRW is strong. Photovoltaic is a growing market and everyone has food, but the market will give the answer to who is best.

Another thing to say is that the sooner the new technology is put into production, the better. In the face of the market, there are too many factors that are comprehensively considered. If you don't pay attention, you will become a martyr. Is MD better than CD? Is Iridium better than Big Brother? Why are they all slammed by the latter? If 210 is good, there must be special advantages, but can the market push away too many influencing factors. Quantity is the proof. I wrote a special article when I was arguing at the beginning of the year. Looking at it today, it is basically in line with the original judgment. The same is true for hjt, cost is the key.

I need a bite to eat. I know that a 100-inch TV in the living room is better than a 60-inch TV, but I will still buy a 60-inch TV, and manufacturers will still recommend 60-inch. It is foreseeable that 60-inch is still the mainstream in the past two years. When 100-inch is popularized , I believe those TV manufacturers are still in production.